My iPad 2 Prediction

Want to know my prediction for what the iPad 2 will be like? I think it will be just what we expect and probably not much more.

Apple rarely ships breakthrough devices on the second version. It’s the most obvious “shortcomings” in the current iPad that will be rolled into the next version, and that’s probably it.

The iPhone 3G primarily only improved upon what was most lacking in the original iPhone: better cellular signal. The 3GS improved on the 3G by making it faster and better battery life.

I think the iPad 2 will simply improve upon only the most obvious of shortcomings. And, to be honest, I think those “obvious shortcomings” are actually few and far between. It will be easier to hold with one hand, it will have a front-facing camera, and it will have more memory.

It could have more: a longer battery life, a faster processor, a camera on the back, a retina display… but now we’re just getting greedy.

Does the iPad need any of those features? In the 11 months that I’ve owned my iPad I’ve probably charged it only a few dozen times. How many gadgets can you say that about?

And here’s my wild guess: though I know diddly squat about iOS 5 and a potential update to MobileMe, the iPad 2 announcement will primarily underpin what we’re going to see in software announcements today.

My iPad 2 Prediction

Clearly this is the week for launching new projects. Dave Caolo has his first book coming out in just a few weeks: Using Your iPad as a Business Productivity Tool. Dave is a fantastic writer and communicator and he knows his stuff. This book looks great!

It’s available to pre-order for just 5 bucks for Kindle, but I’m holding out for when it comes to the iBookstore.

‘Using Your iPad as a Business Productivity Tool’

So at first this sounds like, well duh more people are watching Netflix on their Apple TV than on their iPad. I mean, it’s obvious that people will prefer to watch a movie on their big screen than on their iPad.

Just a few weeks ago I bought my first TV. Before that, whenever Anna and I would stream a Netflix movie it would be in the living room watching on the 15-inch MacBook Pro, or in the office on the 23-inch Cinema Display. Never did we stream a Netflix movie using the iPad. Now, streaming to via our Apple TV is superb.

But what’s so intriguing about these iPad and Apple TV comparison numbers is that the iPad is almost a year old and has sold 15 million units. While the new Apple TV is 4 months old and has sold just over 1 million units. There are one-fifteenth the amount of Apple TVs, they’ve been available for one-third the time, and they’ve already surpassed the iPad.

Jason Snell says it’s (at least in part) because Netflix on the iPad is less than great.

I’m curious how many Apple TVs have led to new Netflix subscriptions. The Netflix Shareholder Report (PDF) states 3.08 million new subscribers in the fourth quarter of 2010. If every single Apple TV purchase also led to a new Netflix subscription there would still be an additional 2 million Netflix subscriptions coming from other channels. You can gather from the report that Netflix attributes a lot of their growth to the new streaming-only plan — one-third of all new accounts are the streaming only.

Apple TV Surpasses iPad in Netflix Streaming Popularity

This is the way beta testing for iOS devices should be. At any given time I am helping beta test a handful of apps. A few of the developers have been using TestFlight while it was still in private beta. And keeping up to date with their latest builds became so much easier I became a more useful tester.

If you’re an iOS developer, you should be using TestFlight. If your a beta tester, tell your developer friends to sign up.

TestFlight

The first iPad app from Lunar/Theory that’s just hitting the App store today.

What really intrigues me about this iPad app is its philosophy. It’s basically a well-built front end for delivering content from almost 100 pre-selected sources. Or, put another way, it’s a fun RSS reader with the feeds pre-subscribed for you.

The whole point of the app is to get design inspiration. And so they’ve gone out and found what they think are the best visual and literary places of inspiration on the web today and are piping their content into their app.

From their website, the features list is:

  • Real-time visual inspiration from 50+ sites
  • Text feeds from 30+ sites
  • In-app web browser
  • Share links via email, Facebook and Twitter

I think this is a fantastic idea, it’s curated content for a specific purpose and has been custom built for use on the iPad.

DesignScene

Horace Dediu’s fascinating reports on the total number of apps downloaded from the iOS App Store compared to the total number of songs downloaded from iTunes.

In short? Apps are taking off like crazy. It took the App Store half the time it took iTunes to reach 10 billion downloads. Also:

The amazing story of this chart is not that apps are running at above 30 million download per day, but that the figure is growing. Growth like this is hard to get one’s mind around. Not only are downloads increasing, but the rate of increase is increasing.

Update: Ahmad Alhashemi asked me on Twitter if it matters how many of those 10 billion apps are free and how many are paid. It matters in the fact that total apps downloaded to date would surely be less than 10 billion if there were no free apps (which is the point I’m highlighting here). But, if you read Horace’s report, he’s making a point that iOS users have an increasing investment in their device due to the amount of apps they’ve downloaded and use.

Apps vs. Songs

Many thanks to Cyberspace for sponsoring the RSS feed this week. Cyberspace is a Web browser for your iPad and iPhone/iPod touch that is jam packed with useful and thought-out features not found in Safari. It’s got Twitter, OmniFocus, and Instapaper support baked in. As well as in-flight text mobilizer using Instapaper’s engine.

Cyberspace is a universal app, and is just $2 on the App Store.

Cyberspace